UNDERSTANDING AND MONITORING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY IN MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH NEXT-GENERATION METHODS

Recent studies show that climate change and unsustainable land use negatively affect biodiversity. However, these studies are concentrated in tropical regions, Europe, and the USA. Therefore, their results cannot be generalized, and efficient conservation solutions with a holistic approach cannot be developed. This project aims to predict the effects of climate change in mountainous areas, which represent some of the richest landscapes yet are most affected by climate change, and to lay the foundations of an effective biodiversity monitoring system. The project adopts a “space-for-time substitution” approach to reveal the effects of climate change. The objectives are to identify the diversity of insects, plants, mammals, and birds in the Niğde Aladağlar and Bolu Köroğlu Mountains using next-generation methods; to estimate the effects of climate change on community composition and species diversity; and to create a pioneering database for next-generation biodiversity data. Plant data will be collected via expert observations, bird and bat data by bioacoustic recordings, large mammal data by camera trapping, and insect data by DNA metabarcoding of samples collected using traps. Artificial intelligence and other new automated technological solutions will be used for species identification. Data on explanatory variables regarding environmental conditions, landscape, and land use will be collected through fieldwork, satellite images, and local interviews. In the first 20 months of the study, data will be collected and processed. In the second 16 months, alpha and beta diversity, ordination, taxonomic, and functional diversity analyses will be carried out; a database will be prepared; and the results will be published. The effects of climate, topography, and land use on diversity will be revealed using generalized linear mixed models (GLMM). Possible changes in the impacts of climatic variables under different macroclimates and land use conditions will be inferred. Species that are sensitive or resistant to climate change, as well as topographic shelters, will be identified. By implementing a biodiversity monitoring protocol with new technologies for the first time, the first step in biodiversity monitoring in mountainous areas will be taken in Türkiye. The datasets will be stored in a newly designed database. Strategies for relevant institutions and organizations to store next-generation biodiversity data will be investigated. Throughout the research, partnerships will be established with individuals or organizations related to biodiversity identification, monitoring, and climate change. Meetings and workshops will be held to collaborate with stakeholders. Additionally, a “Practitioner’s Guide” will be prepared and introduced. The project contributes to our country’s strategic goals for the Green Deal, adaptation to climate change, and national biodiversity monitoring. The project is managed by our group. The project team is composed of three researchers (Didem Ambarlı, Ilgın Ertan Gürol and Esra Selin Emirmustafaoğlu from METU) as well as several collaborators.